5 reasons the Detroit Lions will make the Super Bowl in 2024 (2024)

After the Detroit Lions’ loss to the 49ers in the NFC Championship Game, coach Dan Campbell offered a chilling statement to his team and the media.

“I told those guys, this may have been our only shot,” Campbell said. “Do I think that? No. Do I believe that? No. However, I know how hard it is to get here. I’m well aware. It’s going to be twice as hard to get back to this point next year than it was last year. That’s the reality.”

With that in mind, I shortly thereafter penned an article on why Detroit could, indeed, struggle to get back.

But the week after that, general manager Brad Holmes came through with a much rosier outlook on the team’s future.

“It’s only going to get better, okay. We’re only going to get better,” Holmes said. “I don’t want anybody to think that this was a one-shot, Cinderella magical journey that just happened. No, it’s real. This is exactly what was supposed to happen. I understand that based on history from what’s happened in the past—I understand you have a season like this, it’s easy to feel like this was kind of a one-shot, magical, lucky cute story—which I’m tired of hearing. It was none of that.”

So let’s take a more optimistic look into the future. Here are five reasons the Lions could, and should, make a Super Bowl run in 2024.

The coaching staff is (mostly) back

The return of Ben Johnson, without a doubt, is the biggest reason to believe the Lions can make it to the Super Bowl in 2024. This is a league that requires a strong offense to win a championship. Of the teams that finished in the top 10 in offensive DVOA, all 10 made the playoffs and three of the top five teams in DVOA made the conference championship game. On the other hand, only six of 10 teams who finished in the top 10 in defense DVOA made the playoffs.

In general, a year-to-year offense is more consistent than a defense. And with Detroit returning their offensive coordinator, quarterback, and at least eight of their 11 starters—likely more—the offense should be just as good as ever. Johnson proved he wasn’t a one-year wonder last year.

And while the return of Aaron Glenn as defensive coordinator isn’t quite as massive as Johnson’s return, that level of continuity is important. And while Detroit struggled against the pass, it should not be overlooked how drastically the Lions improved under Glenn at defending the run. After ranking 25th in run defense DVOA in 2022, the Lions were first in 2023.

There’s little reason to expect regression

There are three common stats analysts look at when it comes to identifying teams who could regress in the following year: injury luck, record in one-score games, and turnover margin. The idea is that all three of those statistics have little predictive value for the following season. So if a team was extraordinarily lucky in these categories, they’re due to return to the mean the following season.

Admittedly, the Lions were on the positive side of injury luck in 2023, but they weren’t all that lucky in the other two categories. For the season, the Lions held a dead-even 0 turnover margin. And in the regular season, they were just 5-3 in one-score games (7-4 if you include the postseason). That’s not particularly lucky on either account, so outside of likely seeing more injuries this upcoming season, I wouldn’t expect regression.

The best NFC teams are due to regress

Now let’s look at some of the other NFC teams that could challenge the Lions for the Super Bowl. I am using the top four non-Lions NFC teams in Super Bowl odds.

Turnover margin:

• 49ers: +10
• Cowboys: +10
• Packers: 0
• Eagles: -10

Record in one-score games:

• 49ers: 1-3 (2-1 in postseason)
• Cowboys: 3-2
• Packers: 6-5 (0-1 in postseason)
• Eagles: 8-3

So while the Cowboys and 49ers didn’t have a ton of one-score luck, they were aided by a ton of turnovers. And while the Eagles had horrible turnover luck, they were also incredibly lucky in one-score games.

The Packers weren’t lucky in either category, but that isn’t to say they weren’t lucky in 2023. In fact, by a cumulative score in various “lucky” categories (dropped INTs, opponent dropped passes, missed FGs/XPs by opponent), no other team benefitted more than the Packers:

The Lions’ core is young and talented

Holmes has set the ideal blueprint of what it looks like to accomplish a true rebuild. He got rid of bloated contracts for older players, made modest, short-term free agent signings, and focused on building draft assets and using them to add young, cheap, talented players. With a coaching staff both unafraid to play rookies out of the gate and focused on development, it’s not just the Lions’ foundation that is young, it’s nearly the whole damn team:

And would you look at that. Not only are the Lions the fifth youngest team by snap-weighted age, but the Eagles, 49ers, and Cowboys are all among the top 10 oldest teams. That said, the Packers are on a similar youthful trajectory, setting up an epic NFC North rivalry for the next era of divisional football.

The NFC quarterback situation is far from scary

While a guy like Jordan Love and Brock Purdy may have just scratched the surface of their potential, the entire NFC just doesn’t have the quarterbacks to fear that the AFC does. It would be hard to imagine the Lions getting to the Super Bowl if they had to work their way through the gauntlet of Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Tua Tagovailoa, C.J. Stroud, Trevor Lawrence, and maybe even Aaron Rodgers. But navigating through the likes of Purdy, Love, Dak Prescott, Matthew Stafford, Jalen Hurts, and Baker Mayfield? Not a single one of those players strikes fear in me.

Quarterback is the ultimate equalizer in this league, and a superstar is capable of taking over any game—particularly in the playoffs. So the Lions—and every other NFC team—should consider themselves lucky to be in this conference.